East Asia: Facts and Analytics, 2026/2
DOI: 10.24412/2686-7702-2026-2-50-65
URL: PDF
Author
| Kalmykov Ivan D. |
| Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences |
| ORCID: 0009-0009-9080-5884 |
| E-mail: id@callmekohl.ru |
Abstract
The article examines the features of the renewable energy sector development in Vietnam in the context of rapid electricity demand growth, external decarbonisation requirements, and the transformation of national energy policy. The author assesses the current status and scaling constraints of renewable energy sources (RES), analyses changes in Vietnam’s energy policy and regulatory framework in the context of the global energy transition. The information base comprises open-access data series from IRENA and Ember on installed capacity and RES generation, as well as World Bank macroeconomic indicators for 2015–2024. The study employs content analysis of strategic planning and regulatory documents, including the 2025 revision of Vietnam’s 8th National Power Development Plan (PDP8). The PDP8 revision records a sharp increase in solar, wind and energy storage targets while maintaining coal capacity at approximately 31 GW through 2030, making rapid coal phase-out structurally challenging and reinforcing the importance of grid investment and battery storage deployment. An OLS econometric assessment of the relationship between RES shares in capacity and generation with GDP per capita and a feed-in tariff (FiT) dummy variable is conducted. The analysis shows that the rapid RES expansion of the late 2010s was accompanied by grid infrastructure constraints and a divergence between capacity growth and RES contribution to actual generation. Economic, institutional and infrastructure barriers to scaling renewable energy in Vietnam through 2030 are identified. The findings may be used to assess the feasibility of energy transition targets and investment risks in Vietnam’s power sector.
Keywords
Vietnam, renewable energy, RES, energy transition, feed-in tariffs (preferential tariffs for RES electricity), energy storage systems (ESS), Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), direct power purchase agreements (DPPA)
Support
–
Acknowledgments
–
For citation
Kalmykov I.D. (2026). Osobennosti razvitiya sektora vozobnovlyayemoy energetiki vo V’yetname: tekushchiy status i videniye do 2030 goda [Features of the renewable energy sector development in Vietnam: the current status and vision to 2030]. Vostochnaya Aziya: fakty i analitika [East Asia: Facts and Analytics], 8 (2): 50–65. (In Russian). DOI 10.24412/2686-7702-2026-2-50-65
References
Butko A.A. (2022). Vozmozhnosti rossiysko-v’yetnamskogo sotrudnichestva v toplivno-energeticheskoy sfere [Opportunities for Russian-Vietnamese cooperation in the fuel and energy sector]. V’yetnamskiye issledovaniya [The Russian Journal of Vietnamese Studies], 6 (3): 25–34. (In Russian). DOI 10.54631/VS.2022.63-108522
Reyshakhrit E.I., Nevskaya M.A. (2021). Analiz sostoyaniya, perspektivy i problemy ugol’noy otrasli V’yetnama [Analysis of the current state, prospects and problems of Vietnam’s coal industry]. Vestnik Yevraziyskoy nauki [The Eurasian Scientific Journal], 13 (1). (In Russian).
Dapice D. (2018). Vietnam’s crisis of success in electricity: Options for a successful clean energy mix. Ash Center Policy Briefs Series. URL: https://dash.harvard.edu/entities/publication/3ba26131-1e88-49c8-aa50-0f0306d1670a (accessed: Jun 4, 2026).
Do B., Tran T., Nguyen N. (2021). Renewable energy integration in Vietnam’s power system: Generation adequacy assessment and strategic implications. Energies, 14 (12), 3541.
Do T.N., Burke P.J., Nguyen H.N., Overland I., Suryadi B., Swandaru A., & Yurnaidi Z. (2021). Vietnam’s solar and wind power success: Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries. Energy for Sustainable Development, 65, 1–11. DOI 10.1016/j.esd.2021.09.002
Le H.T.T., Riva Sanseverino E., Nguyen D.Q., Di Silvestre M.L., Favuzza S., & Pham M.H. (2022). Critical assessment of feed-in tariffs and solar photovoltaic development in Vietnam. Energies, 15 (2), 556. DOI 10.3390/en15020556
Martinus M. (2024). Just energy transition partnerships (JETPs) in Indonesia and Vietnam: Implications for Southeast Asia. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Perspective. URL: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ISEAS_Perspective_2024_40.pdf (accessed: May 28, 2026).
Nguyen K.G. (2023). Vietnam’s anti-corruption campaign: Economic and political impacts. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Perspective, 41. URL: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/ISEAS_Perspective_2023_41.pdf (accessed: May 28, 2026).
Nguyen M.P., Ponomarenko T., Nguyen N. (2024). Energy transition in Vietnam: A strategic analysis and forecast. Sustainability, 16 (5), 1969. DOI 10.3390/su16051969
Riva Sanseverino E., Le Thi Thuy H., Pham M.H., Di Silvestre M.L., Nguyen Quang N., Favuzza S. (2020). Review of potential and actual penetration of solar power in Vietnam. Energies, 13 (10), 2529. DOI 10.3390/en13102529
Dates
| Received Date: | May 18, 2026 |
| Accepted Date: | May 30, 2026 |
| Publication Date: | Jul 1, 2026 |
International License: CC BY 4.0